Uganda’s Intelligence sponsored media like the Informant, Softpower and Command1post are beating war drums inciting the public to fight Rwanda. Such media are competing to become Hero to propaganda, intimidation and fake news. To claim that Rwanda and its president are targeting Uganda’s oil and therefore President Kagame should be crushed before 2021 for Uganda to have peace, is pure insanity and reveals extreme foolishness.
The author shouldn’t be worried, I don’t think Rwanda, observing how they handle their political matters for over time would be interested in fighting an old donkey that has nothing to lose because even his lifespan is on the margin.
If one would ask; where is this oil that never comes out of the ground?
Does it sound logic to spend 13 years singing of oil and there is nothing whatsoever to show for the oil. The dynamics of Uganda’s political settlement raise serious doubts as to whether the impressive levels of elite commitment and bureaucratic capacity displayed to date will withstand the intensifying pressures that will accompany the eventual commencement of oil flows.
To date a number of companies have withdrawn from the oil exploration deal, companies like Total said they have stopped technical work on the oilfield and pipeline project following the collapse of a deal to buy additional equity from Tullow and the failure of talks with the Ugandan government to agree legal terms for the investment. So far Work on Ugandan pipeline project has stalled in the wake of continued disagreements between the government and its three foreign partners.
The Ugandan government claims to have found a solution to the impasse blocking development of its huge oil production and pipeline export project. However, there is little sign of an early resolution with companies over the dispute, ostensibly over a tax issue but also the development’s wider commercial framework.
Kenya started exporting her oil months ago yet there was never any news of oil in Kenya.
Kenyatta flagged off tens of thousands of barrels as Kenya’s first ever oil export in a calm humble manner, he didn’t threaten anyone about oil. He didn’t say it is his oil.
It is better for Uganda and its media and it might be more useful to avoid according ‘oil’ a specific sense of political agency that is somehow independent of contextual factors and go beyond an obsession with institutional form, to focus instead on the deeper forms of politics and power relations that underpin institutional performance.