Regional
How Mt Kenya is arm-twisting Raila to win running mate ticket
![image](webadmin/images/raila-karua.jpg-20220420050709000000.jpg)
ODM leader Raila Odinga (left) and Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua
Political
pundits are unanimous that after exploring all variables at play and without
being influenced by any form of bias, Mr Odinga's running mate will be fished out of Mt Kenya or
lower Eastern.
But
Mt Kenya is silently boxing Mr Odinga into a corner to 'arm-twist' him into
picking a running mate from the region and in particular, former Gatanga MP
Peter Kenneth or Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua.
The
agitation is said to be behind Mt Kenya Jubilee aspirants’ refusal to own Mr
Odinga in their campaigns, where they are not accommodating him on their
billboards or in political rallies until he guarantees the area the running
mate slot.
While
Jubilee vice-chairman David Murathe has declared that "Mr Odinga will win
the August 9 presidential race against United Democratic Alliance (UDA)
candidate Dr William Ruto with or without Mt Kenya votes," some of his
colleagues insist "that can only be said publicly by someone who is under
the influence of political naivety".
With
his two-time (2013 and 2017) running mate Kalonzo Musyoka already in Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Alliance and
spiritedly demanding the running mate slot alongside Machakos Governor Alfred
Mutua, experts now say Mr Odinga's decision on the critical issue will be about
numbers.
Mr
Kalonzo, Mr Kenneth and Ms Karua have unsuccessfully contested the presidency,
with their performances now used to measure their chances of bagging the deputy
presidency.
“Mr
Kalonzo bagged 879,903 votes in the 2007 presidential election and has
deputised Mr Odinga to come in nearly 50/50 as runners-up in 2013 and 2017. To
an objective analyst, Mr Kalonzo is an asset,” said Mt Kenya region political
analyst Prof Ngugi Njoroge.
The
big issue in Mr Odinga’s contest strategy, says political analyst Mr Herman
Manyora, will be about amassing numbers to win while playing it safe in his
alliance with President Uhuru Kenyatta.
While
Mr Odinga is partly banking on President Kenyatta’s input for success in this
contest, Mr Manyora said, as a seasoned and calculating politician, he also
knows that any support that does not shore up his numbers is useless.
He
said it is upon Mr Odinga to scientifically analyse voting patterns and pick
his running mate from a region that boosts his numbers knowing full well
anything short of 50 percent plus one is a waste.
Tribal
gangs
Lawyer
Patrick Loch Otieno (PLO) Lumumba says it is unfortunate that the August 9
political contest has refused to detach itself from tribal gangs in the quest
to assemble winning numbers.
“Unfortunate
as it may sound, the biggest consideration for bagging the deputy presidency is
latched inside tribal cocoons. He/she who brings his/her tribe to the table in
bigger numbers bags it,” he said.
“It
is all about communities, and regardless of how passionate you are to his
cause, if you do not bring in the numbers, you will be jettisoned…”
In
Mr Odinga’s case, the President’s men are tabling two hard-stance arguments
seeking to win the running mate position – that Azimio is an Orange Democratic
Movement (ODM) and Jubilee Party outfit whose presidential ticket Mr Odinga has
won, and that the Central region has the numbers.
Mr
Kenneth says that because the principals in Azimio la Umoja are the President
and Mr Odinga, that “leaves very little room for negotiations as it appears
automatic on where the running mate belongs”.
Though
Mr Kenneth cryptically says “big rivers do not drain into tributaries hence Mt
Kenya numbers should be factored in the picking of running mate”, he is quick
to add that the “prerogative to choose the Deputy President is Mr Odinga’s”.
Mr
Kenneth adds that Mt Kenya is not eyeing the seat as a condition for supporting
Mr Odinga’s presidential bid “but our people are closely following what we are
up to”.
While
Mr Kenneth appears to be campaigning hard on the ground for the seat, longtime
administrator Joseph Kaguthi says “Mt Kenya is pursuing another route that has
more value and excitement”.
He
says that “a conglomerate of political, social and economic actors had been
dispatched by Mt Kenya’s who’s who to go after Ms Karua and win her over to the
Azimio la Umoja side”.
Mr
Kaguthi told Nation.Africa that State House and its advisers were deeply
involved “since Ms Karua brings in freshness, compatibility and acceptance in
Mr Odinga’s presidential bid”.
He
said “it is not for idle ends that Ms Karua is in Azimio la Umoja today since
she is a force and she stands the best bet to heal the political rifts that
have persisted between Mr Odinga’s community and Mt Kenya”.
However,
Ms Karua said the issue of who bags the running mate slot is not a question to
be asked around casually.
“The
best-placed people to answer that question are those contesting the presidency.
I am not contesting the presidency…all those who have declared are the ones to
tell us who will be their running mates,” she said.
Mt
Kenya MCA caucus chairman Charles Mwangi protested that "we should desist
from speaking out of turn and instead concentrate on helping the President
capture our space in Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Alliance that befits our
interests".
He
urges Mr Murathe and company who are not interested in the deputy presidency
"to simply shut up and realise Mt Kenya is an interested party controlling
shares in the next government and we should not be treated to demeaning
theatrics".
Mr
Mwangi said Mt Kenya voters matter and it is delusional to think that its space
in Azimio can be wished away as the acceptability of Mr Odinga’s candidacy in
the region will be determined by the actual gain won before votes are cast on
August 9. He said Mr Odinga will lose Mt Kenya if he does not pick a running
mate from the region.
Former
Maragua MP Elias Mbau told Nation.Africa that "it will be inconceivable
for President Kenyatta to assume that Mt Kenya’s long-term interests can be
ignored from the proximity of the next government".
He
said that was the foundational political scripture contained in a memorandum
presented to Mr Odinga at the Ihura Stadium in Murang'a County on January 29.
"The
thrust of our message was that in Mr Odinga's government we must be represented
by a shareholding commensurate with our numbers and other attached dynamics,”
Mr Mbau said.
“We
were very clear that in his government we desire to see one of us capable of
playing the role of a President in waiting. That person, to most of us, is Mr
Kenneth."
Jubilee
secretary-general Jeremiah Kioni insists that "the next government is
already designed and has Mr Odinga as the President with the rest of his team
being Kenyans of goodwill".
He
said the issue of who gets what, when and how is being addressed by the
President and Mr Odinga. He insists that the President is the one walking into
Azimio carrying all the aspirations of Mt Kenya and its share of the pie.
Mr
Odinga's strategist, Prof Makau Mutua, is also apprehensive of the running mate
politics, saying loyalty is key in scouting for someone with the numbers and an
understanding of the dynamics of that office.
Could
that person be Mr Kalonzo? Mr Mwangi asserts that "it is neither here nor
there about Kalonzo in (the) Azimio la Umoja matrix."
He
said "Kalonzo should be promised the National Assembly Speaker and the
deputy presidency (should) go to Mr Kenneth."
Mr
Kenneth downplayed the emerging cracks, saying "Mt Kenya is in safe hands
in President Kenyatta's statesmanship status [after he leaves] State
House".
But
he offered: "What must remain prominent is the fact that Azimio
foundations are the Jubilee and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) parties."
He
said all other late entrants into the bandwagon should realise they are third
legs of fourth legs as the first two were already in place.
Power-sharing
formula
Mr
Kenneth's diehard supporter, Gatanga MP Nduati Ngugi, said "we are not
inclined to give the President and Mr Odinga any conditions but some issues are
statements of fact and logic". He said Mt Kenya is the best placed to
produce the Azimio running mate in the spirit of ODM bagging the presidential
candidate.
Mr
Kenneth said these issues will be resolved and that "by the time rubber
meets the tarmac, the Mt Kenya region will be happy [about] the power-sharing
formula in the context of national unity and inclusivity of the leadership positions
on offer".
Mr
Kioni said President Kenyatta’s legacy in Mt Kenya is critically important, and
that residents “must enjoy resources and power allocations commensurate” with
their numbers.
“We
want development projects that [match] our taxation input. We want our
diversity in settling and doing business across the country respected," he
said.
Mr
Mwangi noted that such guarantees can best be pursued by a retired President
Kenyatta signing a legally binding agreement with a President Odinga that Mt
Kenya’s expectations will be implemented.
"The
other avenue which is a must is by having a Mt Kenya leader inside government
and who has the ability to play the role of a President in waiting given that
we do not have a good history of adhering to political gentleman's
agreements," he said.
He said it is a closed chapter that whoever deputises Mr Odinga must be someone from Mt Kenya and precisely "a son or daughter of Murang’a County".
Source:
https://nation.africa/