Kagame-Muhoozi meet raised hopes. What next?

On January 22, Rwandan President Paul Kagame received Lt Gen Muhoozi Keinerugaba, the son and senior Presidential adviser to Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni.

Muhoozi also serves as Commander of Uganda's Land Forces.

The visit made headlines in the mainstream media in Uganda and Rwanda. On social media, it attracted much more discussion on the implications of Rwanda and Uganda relations that have been strained for years.

Although no official statement was issued at the end of Muhoozi’s surprise visit, his meeting with Kagame, raised the hopes of Ugandans and Rwandans that the two countries can mend their strained relations.

The people of Uganda and Rwanda have different short term expectations. They share almost similar views on long term good relations between their neighboring countries.

On the Ugandan side, the priority short term outcome of the talks seem to focus more  on the opening of the border in order to resume trade. On the Rwandan side, emphasis is on dealing with the issues that caused the frosty  relations and the border closure, before anything else.

Rwanda has persistently, and with evidence, accused Uganda of supporting terror groups like the Rwanda National Congress (RNC) led by Kayumba Nyamwasa, FDLR, FLN and RUD Urunana. Uganda’s Chieftaincy of Military Intelligence (CMI) under Maj Gen Abel Kandiho, was implicated in facilitating and coordinating anti-Rwanda terror group’s activities in Uganda with the objective to destabilize Rwanda.

Nearly four days after Muhoozi’s Kigali sojourn, Kandiho was relieved of his CMI duties and posted to South Sudan as a special envoy.

Earlier, Rwanda complained about arbitrary arrests, torture and imprisonment of hundreds of Rwandans in Uganda, on allegations that they are spies. Some of these Rwandans were often released and dumped at the border, with no charge.  

What next after Muhoozi-Kagame meeting?

The first step towards normalization of relations between Rwanda and Uganda is to resuscitate the stalled bilateral talks on the implementation of the provisions of the Angola Memorandum of Understanding. This calls for re-constituting diplomatic and security technical teams to take stock of the complaints that were tabled by the two countries. Then a report by the technical teams will inform the Principles on whether or not all the concerns were satisfactorily addressed.

Rwanda’s demands included but were not limited to: Uganda disbanding the RNC and RUD-Urunana networks on its territory; Uganda refraining from all actions meant to destabilize Rwanda and eliminating all factors that may create such perceptions.

Uganda was also asked to withdraw Ugandan passport No. A000199979 that was issued by the Ugandan government to Charlotte Mukankusi, commissioner in charge of diplomacy in the RNC.

Uganda was to hold accountable facilitators of RNC and RUD-Urunana networks, including former Minister of State Philemon Mateke, Kandiho, Brig. Gen. Fred Karara, Col. CK Asiimwe, Col. Kaka Bagyenda, Maj. Fred Mushambo, and other government officials involved in the same activities.

Uganda was to unconditionally release all Rwandan citizens illegally detained there. For Uganda, the main complaint was that Rwanda sends spies to its territory.

Against this backdrop of mistrust, and failed attempts in the past to mend relations, it is of interest to note that Muhoozi dilutes tough issues and gives an impression of good relations between the two countries being attainable in a short time.

“I have been alive long enough to know that Uganda and Rwanda are one country! In exile in the 1980s me and my family were also called ‘Rwandans.’  Only enemies would fight our unity. Let us resolve these small problems quickly and move forward together as always,” Muhoozi tweeted after his Kigali trip.

Kagame waved the first olive branch when he unconditionally accepted to release a Ugandan soldier attached to the Special Forces Command, Private Ronald Arinda, who was arrested on Rwandan territory. Kagame did not request for an exchange with hundreds of Rwandans believed to be held in Uganda prisons and ‘safe houses.’

Unfortunately, even before Muhoozi settled in back home, from his Kigali meeting, a Rwandan businesswoman in Kampala, Alice Umutesiwase, who operates a stall in Owino market, was arrested by CMI agents on the usual spying allegations leveled against all Rwandans in Uganda. This raised questions in Kigali on whether there are two systems in Kampala, one that wants peace and another that is hell bent on destabilizing Rwanda. The question here is: will Muhoozi’s words of looking forward to a quick fix work easily?    

Although the problems between Rwanda and Uganda may not be as small as Muhoozi describes them, his belief that they can easily be resolved is encouraging for Rwandans and Ugandans who are looking forward to resumption of  free movement of people and goods. However, Muhoozi was a messenger who has to report to his superior, his father, who holds the master key to determine the next step of action towards normalizing relations between Uganda and Rwanda.

There have been other envoys before Muhoozi from Uganda to Rwanda on the issue of normalizing relations between the two countries.  Their efforts did not pay off. Many observers are anxiously waiting to see the magic that Muhoozi will use to turn tables in Kampala. A friend observed that as a senior presidential advisor and a trusted son, he holds more sway over the president than previous envoys.