Kenya: Why Raila should not underrate Ruto

On his recent trip to the United Kingdom, Orange Democratic Party (ODM) leader and presidential flag bearer of AZIMIO Coalition, Raila Odinga, told BBC that Uhuru Kenyatta will be his advisor when he becomes President.

“He will help me with advice. I shall be consulting him just as he consults me now,” he said in an interview on BBC. 

On hearing Raila’s responses during the interview, one would conclude that he is overconfident that nothing will stop him from taking presidential seat come August. At the Azimio La Umoja’s National Delegates Conference on March 12, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta told delegates that he believes Raila has the right leadership tools to elevate Kenya into a booming state.

Kenyatta’s support for Raila may have given him much confidence to feel that he is a few months away to becoming the fifth president of Kenya. This kind of early confidence of Raila’s win was also echoed by the Jubilee Party Vice Chairman David Murathe who said that the Azimio La Umoja flagbearer will win the upcoming August presidential election with or without votes from the Mt. Kenya region.

“This is the message to Mt Kenya... Raila is winning this election. They better decide whether he is winning with them on board or without them on board. If Raila wins without them on board, they know they will be consigned to the dustbin,” Murathe said, while appearing on Citizen TV’s News Night show on March 15.

Raila supporters believe that he is a senior politician and assume that for him to win the presidency is a walk over.  However, political analysts see Ruto as a hard political nut to crack despite the fact that it is his first time to vie for the presidential seat. 

Ruto’s political background reveals that he is a strong mobiliser who has the charm to turn opponents into allies. In 1992, Ruto belonged to the powerful youth group known as Youth for KANU (YK 92). Ruto and Cyrus Jirongo had access to huge state resources which they used to buy the opposition at a time the popularity of KANU party under President Daniel arap Moi  was at the lowest.  The country’s economy was on its knees and corruption was at its highest.

"The YK '92 mobilised the youth all over the country, promising a Kanu change from within and opportunities for unemployed youth and other marginalised groups. A lot of resources backed this rhetoric," political analysts Karuti Kanyinga and Murimi Njoka wrote in The Role of Youth in Politics: The Social Praxis of Party Politics Among the Urban Lumpen in Kenya.

Like in the Moi era, Ruto is eyeing massive numbers of unemployed youth, workers in the informal sector (Jua Kali) and small business people, who he identifies himself with under the slogan of ‘hustler.’ In his campaigns, Ruto tells these groups that he is one of them since he was born in poverty and he knows how bad it is, unlike his competitor, Raila, and Kenyatta who were raised up in rich families and therefore, do not understand the suffering of the common people.

The ‘hustler’ narrative and the ‘wheelbarrow’ trade mark have made Ruto popular among the low class citizens. Like in 1992, Ruto has a deep pocket that can enable him to buy voters.

Although President Uhuru Kenyatta campaigned for Raila in the vote rich Mt. Kenya region and urged residents to vote for him, the region seems to be divided with Ruto currently commanding substantial support. Political analysts believe that Mt. Kenya region will be the battle ground to determine the winner between Raila and Ruto.

Ruto is a tough talking politician and a refined orator, who promises to eradicate poverty, to create markets for the citizen’s agricultural produce, and fires up crowds in his political rallies.

Ruto is said to be  drawing from the lessons of the YK 92 political movement 28 years ago by reenacting its grassroots networks to popularise himself in every corner of the country.

On the other side, the YK 92 group was blamed to be the architects of tribal violence in the rift valley region in 1992 and 1997. Kikuyu farmers were violently evicted from the region during election times. During the 2007 elections, the rift valley province again witnessed the worst tribal post-election violence that left a number of people dead while others were evicted from their homes. With Ruto now claiming that there are plans to steal votes, it has been widely interpreted as an early warning that he is likely not to accept the results of the polls in case he lost. This has kept many worried that election related violence is likely to happen again. 

All in all, Raila should not count on his seniority in politics and support by the incumbent president to dismiss Ruto as a political novice. 

Ruto’s ‘hustler’ campaign slogan of identifying himself with the poor and marginalized has earned him popularity among ordinary wanainchi (citizens) who are likely to vote for him in large numbers.