Museveni’s NRM: Things fall apart as Speaker Kadaga is kicked out

Kampala - Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni’s ruling party - the National Resistance Movement (NRM) is headed to an all-time low phase of breaking apart after party Members of Parliament (MPs) disagreed on the procedure of nominating the Speaker of the 11^th Parliament.

On Monday, May 24, after swearing in MPs of the 11^th Parliament, in the presence of President Museveni, Jacob Oulanyah was elected by the MPs and subsequently declared by Chief Justice Alfonse Owiny Dollo as the new Speaker of Parliament with 310 votes, while Rebeca Kadaga came second with 197 votes.  Kadaga defied NRM orders and stood as an independent candidate. After the vote counting, there was commotion in the House prompting Museveni to call for order, usurping the powers of the Chief Justice.

The commotion was caused by the presence of Museveni’s guards, the Special Forces Command (SFC) who had entered the tent. “I am wondering why we have strangers in the Chambers. Why are SFC here?” asked Kalungu West MP Joseph Sewungu. The Chief Justice ordered all non-members to leave. “All soldiers get out of the tent,” an unsurprised Museveni also reinforced. The presence of the SFC was interpreted as Museveni’s deliberate tactic meant to intimidate MPs from any possible protest against Kadaga’s loss. 

The executive director at Uganda Media Centre Ofwono Opondo, took to social media to tell the former Speaker that, “In NRM, we fire warning shots. If you ignore them you get taken down. I hope this serves as a good lesson.” A regional political analyst told this website that despite Museveni’s intimidation, Kadaga’s 197 votes were also a strong warning shot to Museveni that all is not well within NRM.

On Sunday night, the NRM top organ, the Central Executive Committee (CEC) picked Oulanyah as the preferred candidate to replace Kadaga who has been Speaker since May 2011. Kadaga and a group of NRM MPs usually referred to as ‘rebel MPs’ protested the unusual procedure used to endorse Oulanyah through the CEC. Under normal procedures, the NRM Parliamentary caucus is  entrusted to carry out the exercise. According to media sources, Oulanyah’s bid for Speakership was bolstered by NRM landslide victories in Acholi and West Nile sub-regions in the 2021 general elections, where the NRM got more than 80 percent of the votes.

Why has Museveni kicked out Kadaga?

According to NRM insiders, the ‘sins’ of Kadaga in the party have been increasing over her 10 year’ tenure as Speaker of Parliament. The most recent of her sins being the poor performance of NRM in the 2021 general elections.  Much as Kadaga is considered a very influential figure in Busoga region politics, Museveni lost miserably to Bobi Wine in the just concluded presidential polls in Iganga, Jinja, Bugweri, Bugiri, Mayuge and Kamuli where Kadaga comes from. The NRM only won in three districts of Buyende, Kaliro and Namutamba. The defeat embarrassed Museveni who was taken by surprise by a ‘first time small party.’’

In 2017, the Kadaga was accused by Museveni loyalists of siding with the opposition against the lifting of the age limit of the President which they considered to be betrayal. In February 2020, Kadaga summoned First Lady Janet Museveni in her capacity as the Minister of Education to appear in person before parliament and refused requests for her to be represented by a junior minister, Rosemary Seninde.

Janet Museveni was expected to explain to Parliament why the Ministry of Education defied a Parliamentary resolution suspending implementation of the new curriculum for lower secondary education. “The Ministry of Education must answer those questions this week and Thursday is the last day and if you don’t, we take you where you know,” Kadaga said.

In December 2012, Kadaga pressed the government to probe the death of outspoken woman MP Cerinah Nebanda. When Kadaga called Parliament from recess to tackle Nabenda’s death, it was considered as a bold move to shake Museveni’s government. All these accusations constitute what led to Museveni’s fall out with Kadaga.

Kadaga is now expected to join hands with the ‘rebel MPs’ who have openly disagreed with Museveni and his NRM diehards on a number of issues in the management of state affairs. With the growing number of opposition within the ruling NRM, that has left the party weak and divided, Museveni’s management style that involves nepotism and corruption  is  seen as the major  root cause. A total 43 out of 73 independent MPs in the 11th Parliament belonged to NRM. They fell out with Museveni in the last general election.