Museveni succession plan, a ticking time bomb

In 1999, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni sent his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, for military training in the UK's prestigious Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, where he graduated in 2000. 

He was later commissioned as a Second Lieutenant and deployed in the then Presidential Protection Unit (PPU). Close family members reveal that Muhoozi never had ambitions to join the military but instead wanted to do business with his uncle, Salim Saleh, who he admired a lot as a successful businessman. 

His 'visionary' father, however, looked beyond his son’s business interests. First, Uganda was to hold elections in 2001, and Museveni needed someone he trusted to care for his security and also to harshly deal with expected resultant electoral violence.

His presidential challenger, Col. Kizza Besigye, was very popular and considered a serious threat. The 2001 elections marked Museveni’s popularity decline since taking power in 1986. Although Museveni was eventually declared winner, with 69.3% of the votes, the electoral process was marred by vote rigging and sporadic violence which left more than 12 people dead. The ruling party, NRM, lost more than 50 incumbent members of parliament including 10 ministers. 

Museveni’s plan for conscripting his son in the military had another grand scheme not known to many Ugandans. He was already grooming his successor, a military General who would be feared by the NRM historical cadres who expected one of their own - the old guard - to replace Museveni. The recent whining by Gen. Elly Tumwine - that he has been a minister for less than five years when his colleagues in the struggle served longer as ministers says a lot. The historical Generals have been sidelined. Gen. Tumwine being the man who fired the first bullet on February 6, 1981, at Kabamba military barracks, marking the beginning of the war in Luwero triangle cannot see himself near the succession cue.

To implement Museveni’s plan, his son was promoted hurriedly to join the ranks of Generals and given military responsibilities that made him more senior and subsequently more feared even by veteran Generals. The first son's recent appointment as commander of Land Forces is the last stage of Museveni’s egoistic strategy to place his son at the pinnacle of military leadership, a position that “qualifies him” to lead the country when his father deems so.

The position of Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) held by Gen. Wilson Mbadi is only ceremonial. The real military control is in the hands of Gen. Muhoozi.   Gen. Tumwine to be heard whining that he has been a minister for less than five years whereas his colleagues have served for a longer period, is an indication that all is not well  within Museveni’s inner camp.

When Gen. Tumwine publicly said that, “to me now I think the best advice we can give him (Museveni) is to prepare for a smooth transition so that we ensure stability and long term peace for the long future,” it is clear indication that the transition, if not handled well, is a ticking time bomb that is likely to explode and kill many Ugandans. There are two schools of thought on the succession of Museveni in relation to what Tumwine revealed.

The first one is that if Gen. Tumwine acted on his own to make the statement on succession, it should be credited to him as an unexpected bold move of taking the bull by the horns to pre-empt the succession debate.

The second is that if Gen. Tumwine was used by Museveni to come up with the statement, it is also an indication that Museveni himself fears that his plan to have his son succeed him may cause violent resistance and rebellion within NRM historicals and right thinking Ugandans. Therefore, according to this line of thought, Tumwine served as a messenger to test the ground and hear the reaction of Ugandans.    

Political analysts say that Museveni and his family have lost credibility among majority Ugandans because of nepotism and rampant corruption. Plans for his son to succeed him would spell disaster for Uganda. “Museveni lost the vision to serve the interests of Ugandans and he cannot re-invent the vision in his son. It is unconstitutional and against the NRM manifesto. Museveni should not handle matters of the country as a personal and family business enterprise,” a political analyst who preferred anonymity said.

In the 2021 elections, Museveni was declared the winner with 58% of the votes, 11 points less than the 2001 results, while more than 50 people died in electoral violence. A good number of NRM MPs and cabinet ministers were defeated, including then Prime Minister Edward Ssekandi. Many Ugandans believe the votes were rigged. This is a clear indication of a regime that has lost popularity and on the verge of total collapse.

Gen. Tumwine said that:  “Ngamba nyenka ni nka amarwa mabi ( a person who does not take advice is like stale beer)." Ugandans are waiting to see whether Museveni will listen and follow the Constitution and the NRM manifesto in choosing his successor rather than installing his son to extend his rule by proxy. 

Those wishing Uganda lasting peace and a good ending for Museveni should save him from the hubris syndrome before the ticking time bomb explodes.