Rwanda South Africa relations won't depend on RNC wishes

Peter Fabricius, a consultant at the Institute of Security Studies (ISS), in South Africa, wrote an article published on July 10, in the Daily Maverick with the title: “SA-Rwanda relations remain strained, opaque amid alleged political assassinations.”  A day before, he published similar content on the ISS website but used a different title: “Will Pretoria sacrifice the Rwanda National Congress opposition party to restore diplomatic ties with Kigali?”

Looking at other articles he has written on Rwanda since 2014, the pattern of his writing is very obvious. This is a man not interested in facts and well researched information. He is a sympathizer of the Rwanda National Congress (RNC) terror group led by Kayumba Nyamwasa who lives in South Africa. Fabricius had the courage to interview the spokesperson of RNC, Etienne Mutabazi, knowing very well that the UN Report of Experts on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), published on December 31, 2018 described in detail the activities of the terror organization that is part of the so called P5 network - including terror groups like the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) and the National Liberation Front (FLN).

Between 2010 and 2014, the RNC carried out grenade attacks in Rwanda which left more than 10 people dead and more than 400 injured. Trying to whitewash RNC as an opposition group against the Rwandan government is shocking and absurd, especially coming from a person who claims to be a security expert.

“This is like defending Al-Shabab in Somalia and saying that it is an opposition political party and not a terror organization,” observed a regional security analyst.   Can Fabricius as well hold an interview with the spokesperson of Al-Qaeda or Alshabab and publish it on the ISS website or in the Daily Maverick?

In his article, Fabricius notes that he talked to the South African High Commissioner to Rwanda, Mandisi Mpahlwa, who informed ISS that they had a frank debate in a successful meeting about the issues of normalizing relations between Rwanda and South Africa. However, he prefers not to believe the High Commissioner’s views on his expectations on the task by the joint mechanism to normalize relations.

Nor does he hide his sympathy to the RNC when questioning its fate in case the two countries normalize relations.  Fabricius casts doubt on the normalization process claiming that “political assassination” attempts on Nyamwasa and the murder of Karegeya are unresolved issues that Rwanda is responsible for.

He depicts the lowest level of professionalism when interviewing the spokesperson of the terror group as well as the South African High Commissioner to Rwanda but ignoring talking to Rwandan authorities on allegations he made against the Rwandan government. This is a biased approach to the Rwanda-South Africa issue.  

Karegeya’s murder is a case still in court. Jumping to conclusions by accusing Rwanda and ignoring court findings is acting as a mouthpiece for Karegeya’s family and the RNC's baseless claims on the assassination attempt on Nyamwasa. There is no evidence linking Rwanda in the two cases. On the death of RNC member, Seif Bamporiki, in Nyanga Township-Cape town, it is shameful for Fabricius to ignore the police investigation that concluded that Seif was killed by robbers and instead, blame his death on the Rwanda government. By praising the infamous book, Do not Disturb, by Michela Wrong, clearly, Fabricius belongs to the same camp as Wrong, Judi Rever, and other RNC sympathizers and the Daily Maverick is used as their mouthpiece.

The 2015/16 national murder study released by Safer Spaces, an online knowledge hub on community safety and violence prevention in South Africa, shows that out of the 18,615 murders investigated,  gun violence accounted for 32.1% and responsible for over  6,000 deaths every year. Rwanda does not send assassins to South Africa or any other country, but gun violence and high rate of crime in South Africa is well documented contrary to what Fabricius wants his readers to believe.

Again, linking “the arrest” or whatever happened to Ntamuhanga Cassien in Mozambique, is bizarre for Fabricius to believe media rumors and RNC fake stories rather than the authorities in Mozambique. The claims make Rwandan security agencies seem invincible - to conduct assassinations and arrests in foreign countries and easily walk away without being apprehended. Super heroes? On the expulsion of South African diplomats from Rwanda, Fabricius contradicts himself by trying to blame Rwanda yet he clearly points out that South Africa was the first to expel Rwandan diplomats. Rwanda acted in reciprocity, a standard procedure in diplomatic circles. 

Presidents Paul Kagame and Cyril Ramaphosa indeed agreed in Kigali in 2018 to normalize relations. It can be called far back but has never been off track. Setting up a joint mechanism is a big step towards normalizing relations between Rwanda and South Africa.  The wishes of the RNC terror group - and its leader Kayumba Nyamwasa - being expressed by Fabricius will not derail or stop the ongoing process of normalizing Rwanda and South Africa relations.