Tshisekedi’s political quagmire as 2023 draws near

As the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) readies for presidential elections in 2023, President Felix Tshisekedi is expected to defend his seat for a second term. Most likely, it won’t be easy for him.

In 2018, election results were strongly contested, with Martin Fayulu who believed he had won saying he was short changed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI).

The long delays to present the final results (10 days after the elections) were highly suspicious. Then President, Joseph Kabila, wanted Tshisekedi as his successor, and as such, Tshisekedi is said to have ascended to power with no popular support.

Strong opposition

This time, the opposition is determined to push Tshisekedi out. But he is also trying all political acrobatics to cling on, although there are many voices saying that there is nothing tangible the DRC leader has achieved after four years in power.   On July 18, a prominent politician, Jean-Marc Kabund, launched a new political party - Alliance for Change (AC) - to challenge Tshisekedi in 2023.

Jean-Marc Kabund

At a press conference in Kinshasa, attended by other opposition politicians, he criticized the Tshisekedi regime. He said it is characterized by amateurism, lies, and misappropriation of state resources. On the insecurity in the east of the country, Kabund said that it reflects the inability of the President to lead the country.

Kabund was interim president of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), the party of Tshisekedi. He is also the former first vice-president of the National Assembly. His divorce with UDPS is believed to be a big blow to Tshisekedi’s party.

Former Prime Minister, Augustin Matata Ponyo, also announced, in May, his presidential ambition when he officially launched his political party, Leadership and Governance for Development (LGD). Matata declared that he had a dream for his country that will make him follow the footsteps of Congolese independence hero Patrice Lumumba.

"A dream like that of Patrice Emery Lumumba, to have in the center of the continent an economic power at the service of the Congolese, the Africans and the world. This dream is possible!"

The former head of government was indicted last year by the state for allegedly embezzling more than $200 million in public funds. The constitutional court later dismissed the case saying it has no jurisdiction over the matter. Matata denounced the indictment as a political plot against his person meant to lock him out of the 2023 presidential elections.

What is Tshisekedi’s game plan?

In 2021, Tshisekedi appointed a new president of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Denis Kadima. The opposition and civil society then accuse Tshisekedi of plotting to rig elections come 2023.  A report published in June by the European Network for Central Africa (EurAc), cites many fears regarding unpreparedness of the electoral body to conduct free and fair elections.

 “After the controversial appointment of the new President of the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), Mr. Denis Kadima, in October 2021, civil society is concerned about the delay in setting up his team, which will have the heavy task of organising the elections, and about the announcement of the electoral timetable setting out the stages in the organisation of the elections.”

The EurAc report says that the political and social context in which the elections will take place is also worrying and characterized by the lack of consensus between the stakeholders, the fragility of the party system following the reorganization of the parliamentary majority, numerous uncertainties concerning the electoral reform under way, as well as weariness on the part of the citizens with regard to the election process.

Although Tshisekedi hand-picked Kadima with  hopes  of helping him to manipulate  the outcome of 2023 elections, political analysts speculate that Tshisekedi is likely to buy more time to organize his political party, by pushing the  elections beyond 2023, citing lack of funds for the electoral commission to run things. There are fears that if this happens, it will spark a major political crisis that will be difficult for Tshisekedi to overcome.

The M23 factor

Since the resumption of hostilities between government forces and the M23 rebels, Tshisekedi has denied to admit that this is a Congolese internal problem that needs a political solution. Instead, he diverts attention by falsely blaming Rwanda for supporting the rebels. Tshisekedi may be right, on one hand, to make such false accusations. Eastern DRC is far away from Kinshasa (more than 2,500kms) for him to know the reality on the ground as the army commanders and local administrators feed him with false reports for their own interests. This is no excuse though, for a head of state to rely on lies, as it exposes his weak and ineffective governance of the state.

By claiming that the M23 rebellion is created by Rwanda, Tshisekedi is soliciting for the support and unity of all political actors, and the general population, to focus on the ‘external enemy,’ and forget about the internal weaknesses of his government.

It is widely believed that Tshisekedi may be interested in a prolonged war with M23, to help him declare a state of emergency, as an excuse to postpone the elections.

The big question is: will the opposition allow Tshisekedi to play these political theatrics simply for his survival?