Regional
Was President Kagame’s visit to Uganda Intended to Boost Muhoozi Succession or Rwanda’s interests?
Rwanda’s
President Paul Kagame is safely back home from a two-day private visit in
Uganda. The Chronicles‘ review of reaction before and after the
visit, from social media and news media reporting, as well as engagement with
players in the know, suggests both Rwanda and Uganda stand to reap strategic,
diplomatic and political benefits.
The
visit, unexpected, following a near-descent into war, is latest chapter in a
complicated relationship between the two capitals. The economic cost,
especially for Uganda, was simply too high – with Bank of Uganda data showing
Rwanda represented close to $200 million market for Ugandan goods, products and
services annually.
Until
the first images of President Kagame arriving at the Entebbe International
Airport emerged, few believed he would be in Uganda, except for a very small
circle – mainly within Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni family and close
ruling party confidants.
Indications
about the visit, were released to the public through Twitter by Lt Gen Muhoozi
Kainerugaba, the First Son and Commander of Land Forces in the Ugandan
military. He was preparing a 48th birthday party which
attracted so much buzz he even named an organising committee on Twitter.
And
indeed, it happened. President Kagame attended a State Banquet hosted by
President Yoweri Museveni at State House in honor of the 48th Birthday
Celebrations of General Muhoozi. However, earlier, the two leaders had met in
Nairobi, Kenya shortly before attending the signing ceremony of the treaty of
accession by the Democratic Republic of Congo to the East African Community
(EAC).
The
visit has been viewed differently by different sections in Uganda, with some
having solely expected that it should have served their interests.
On
the one hand, is some members of the ruling party of President Museveni, and
well-wishers of good relations between Rwanda and Uganda. There is talk of Lt
Gen Muhoozi being fronted as the successor to his father.
The
opposition establishment sees President Kagame coming to grace their Muhoozi’s
birthday party, bringing along his statue, as nothing short of a positive
endorsement of the Muhoozi presidency come 2026.
Ugandan
elites and opposition
The
other section, virulently opposed to the Muhoozi succession, is the elites,
some NRM historicals and some opposition groups. You do not need rocket science
to see that some elements have for years positioned themselves, like any system
would be, to succeed President Museveni. What I detail here, isn’t unusual
whatsoever. Some have critical voices, and have openly voiced their positions.
These
elites argue that President Kagame presence gives legitimacy to a government
they have vehemently opposed. They see Kagame’s presence as sign for
continuation of the bad they don’t want. The elites also view Kagame’s sudden
moves to turn the page in Rwanda-Uganda relations, as strategic win for Rwanda,
while Ugandans continue to suffer.
To
demonstrate their contempt for Muhoozi, a parallel act took place. Opposition
politician Robert Kyagulanyi a.k.a Bobi Wine, mobilized supporters to escort
him through town to his party offices. Designed to provoke, the police gave
them what they wanted, teargas. In the evening news headlines, on Saturday
April 23, the same day, Muhoozi’s event competed with the Bobi Wine’s publicity
stunt.
In a
nutshell, while the ruling establishment is happy with Kagame’s visit, some
elites and the opposition, are in agony. Understandably so, YES. However, the
critique of Kagame visit, is visibly misplaced.
The
fact that President Kagame let it be known to Uganda, since March 2019, that he
couldn’t budge unless his country’s interests are safeguarded, is sign enough
that everything else is secondary.
President
Paul Kagame and host President Museveni arrive at the State House in honor of
the 48th Birthday Celebrations of General Muhoozi
By
President Kagame taking the initiative to constantly seek engagement with
Uganda, shows he is keenly aware that a conflict with his northern neighbor
isn’t in anyone’s interest. If anything, it will lead to unnecessary strife,
yet both country’s are barely 40 years after war and a Genocide.
While
it appears that some Ugandan elites, and the opposition, don’t like the
Rwanda-Uganda rapprochement, it could suggest they enjoyed the war path.
The
view inside Rwanda is that; When Rwandans were getting abducted, killed,
tortured, disappeared and kidnapped, by Uganda’s military intelligence – where
was their outrage then? Why did we not hear criticism of what was being done to
innocent Rwandans.
Plight
of about 3,000 Rwandans
As
of November, last year, The Chronicles obtained exclusive
access to government data that showed 2,567 Rwandans had been deported, often
having been tortured and left for dead. They endured hanging, waterboarding,
electrocution, hooded throughout, and plucking-out nails inside facilities of
the dreaded Uganda Chieftaincy of Military Intelligence (CMI).
The
deportations did suddenly stop recently following the Muhoozi mission to
Rwanda, and meeting President Kagame. However, documented cases are available,
of Rwandans who were killed like Emmanuel Magezi who was arrested by
intelligence operatives in Mbarara district, and his lifeless body turned up
inside Butabika Hospital.
Silas
Hategekimana spent 18 days enduring physical and psychological torture in CMI
torture chambers. He succumbed to the effects of the cruelty meted on him
during detention.
Some
Rwandan nationals are said to still be missing to date.
The
silence around the mistreatment of Rwandans shows that these elites,
opposition, and some historicals who are “unhappy” with the Kagame visit, actually
did not mind the plight of Rwandans. It wouldn’t be wrong to suggest they found
that normal, argue those in Rwanda.
Right
from the beginning of the crisis, the government of Rwanda had clearly set out
its concerns. In addition to abuse, tortured and deportations of Rwandans,
Kigali outlined all armed groups and individuals, who were getting sanctuary in
Uganda.
Rwanda
released graphic details about Uganda’s support to armed groups attempting to
wreak terror on Rwanda.
Operatives
and leaders of these groups received facilitation and safe passage in Uganda,
including by senior officials of the Government. It has been detailed that
former minister Philomene Mateke was go-between for the FDLR militia that is
based in eastern DRC. The Rwanda National Congress (RNC) had operatives
recruiting, and actually also taking part in arrests and interrogation of
Rwandan nationals.
Great
Generals Vs Greater Generals
Among
the senior militia figures arrested in DR Congo and later transferred to Rwanda
for prosecution include two FDLR officials – Ignace Nkaka, best known as La
Forge Fils Bazeye (spokesperson), and “Lt Col” Jean-Pierre Nsekanabo (head of
intelligence) who were apprehended at the Bunagana border on their way from
Kampala for a meeting with RNC officials.
In
May last year, a court in Rwanda convicted 37 suspects in connection with the
deadly attack in Kinigi, the tourist hotbed located in Musanze district,
carried out in October 2019. The court heard a flood of evidence chronicling
how the recruitment, planning and finance of the RUD-URUNANA cell from inside
Uganda, was conducted. In fact, the attack itself was coordinated in Uganda.
Former Minister Mateke, again featured prominently, during the trial.
For
the sections arguing that President Kagame’s visit to Uganda or the
rapprochement, is giving strength to Museveni people, do they expect President
Kagame to permanently remain in state of war for the benefit of those who want
Museveni gone? Do they want Rwanda to fight battles for them?
How
come there was never public condemnation from those Ugandan elites, of their
government, for openly supporting Rwandan militias? A lot of issues remain
unanswered, as to how this laissez-faire attitude prevailed.
The
exclusive primary RESPONSIBILITY of the President of a country, is to protect
the country’s interests, at whatever cost. President Kagame is answerable to
his people. A war or tensions between the two countries will not benefit
Rwandans. Besides, the sections that have been rooting for Rwanda to go to war with
Uganda, have only been looking out for their own interests.
The
powerfully packaged speech at the State Banquet shouldn’t be understood for
what it was not. As a parent himself, invited by another parent, President
Kagame had the duty to be there, as well as give candid guidance.
The
Head of State did exactly so. Kagame noted that he was grateful to have
welcomed Gen Muhoozi to Rwanda.
“I
could see the conversation was that of peace, resolving problems between Rwanda
and Uganda,” said Kagame, adding: “I share these experiences with those who
have been on the battlefield. Great Generals are those who fight and win wars.
Greater Generals are those who win peace.”
If
there was anything either Rwanda or Uganda could have done that can bring
peace, it should be seen as beneficial to both Rwandans and Ugandans.
The governance and political choices of Uganda are the responsibility of Ugandans, and not in any way, the responsibility of Rwanda’s President.
Source: www.chronicles.rw