Regional
Why Museveni Kayumba plot against Rwanda will never succeed
Ugandan President
Yoweri Museveni’s desire for regime change in Rwanda has been known for a long
time. For years on end, Museveni has tried numerous plots; from luring Rwandan
officers to defect to Uganda, to supporting anti-Rwanda terror groups by
training and arming them to attack Rwanda in a bid to remove President Paul
Kagame and replace him with Kayumba Nyamwasa.
Rwanda would
therefore, be more or less like an extension of Museveni’s sphere of influence.
Since the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) launched the liberation struggle from
Uganda, it has been a long time wish of Museveni to control Rwandan leaders.
Recognition of mentorship is not imposed but comes from appreciation by the
mentored.
War
justification
For any war to succeed, both the fighters and the citizens must
appreciate prevailing conditions for its
justification which first of all boosts the morale of the fighters and that of
the citizens who will be most affected when the war takes place. They must be
ready to endure the suffering for a bigger cause than living in warless
conditions when they are oppressed or denied fundamental rights and freedoms.
There must be hope that the war will
change their lives for the better. It is foolhardy to start a war, the only
reason being that Museveni is not happy because Kagame does not listen to him
and therefore, wants him replaced by Kayumba!
Rwandans have confidence in President Kagame
Rwandans are now far better off in terms
of socio-economic and political development contrary to the deliberate lies
that Kayumba and his henchmen keep feeding to the outside world. The latter
keep lying that Rwandans are languishing in poverty, with no human rights and,
therefore, they need to be liberated. Rwandans are living happily, and have
confidence in the country’s leadership particularly President Kagame who has transformed their lives.
Millions of people have been lifted out
of poverty. Since 2001 poverty measured by
the national poverty line, declined from 58.9% to 38.2%. Ordinary Rwandans have
success stories to tell that show the progress towards better living standards.
Who then does Kayumba claim he wants to liberate, and from what? Rwandans are
now wiser. They will not allow Kayumba and his terror group to wage a war on
the Rwandan soil.
Trustable
commander in chief
Any war worth the name must have a competent and trustable commander in chief. The fighters must believe in him much as those he is fighting for. Kayumba cannot be trusted. In an ongoing court case in Rwanda involving Kayumba’s Rwanda National Congress (RNC) and the Forces de Libération Nationale (FLN) militia of Paul Rusesabagina, the captured fighters of both terror groups told the court how Kayumba embezzled $1.5 million. The money that was contributed by members to buy arms to fight the Rwandan government ended up being used by Kayumba to buy for himself commercial trucks for his transport business.“That’s why I left Kayumba’s RNC together with businessmen and formed our own political organization,” Calixte Nsabimana, a former spokesperson of FLN, told a court in Kigali.
Associating with genocidaires
For Kayumba who grew up as a refugee and whose extended family members were
killed in the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi, to now be associated with
members of the Democratic Forces for
the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) who committed genocide, is beyond
imagination. The businessmen Kayumba relies on are mostly those who fear to
return to Rwanda because of their direct involvement in the genocide against
the Tutsi. This is how low and cheap Kayumba’s greed for money has taken him.
He has become a colleague of genociders, when he was a General in the force
that stopped the genocide! Kayumba’s treacherous actions can only earn
him what Rwandans call gutatira igihango
ku gihugu cyakubyaye. Rwandan ancestors and the present generation cannot
forgive Kayumba’s RNC and other terror outfits that have killed innocent
citizens.
Kayumba has enriched himself
with RNC members’ contributions at the expense of losing credibility and
therefore, as he turns the RNC into a cash cow, and steals from his remaining
few supporters, there will be no war.
The nature
of war
The nature of war that Museveni has been plotting against
Rwanda cannot be a direct confrontation between the two countries. He cannot
have the guts and explanation before the international community. If he tried,
he would find a strong well-built house that is well roofed without any
leakage. The second option is engagement in a proxy war which has failed for
decades. Assuming that a proxy war can be started, it would need to use
guerilla war tactics that require clandestine operations and massive popular
support. Museveni is deluded into thinking that since he captured power by
means of a guerilla war, he can carry Kayumba on his back to do the same.
Modern technology rendered guerilla warfare obsolete
Modern technology and scientific innovations have rendered guerrilla warfare obsolete. A simple smartphone accessible in the remotest areas of Rwanda, used to share information in real time, makes concealment and clandestine operations almost impossible. I will avoid commenting on the robustness of the Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) and its modern warfare might. Any antagonist who dares the RDF, and survives, will tell a lifetime story of what happened.
RNC as a
cash cow for Kayumba
For Kayumba, his deal is already done. He has amassed
wealth by pocketing contributions from RNC members enabling him to live in
comfort in South Africa, while deceiving young Rwandans to go and die in the
jungles of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). On the other hand, for
Museveni who has been trying to sponsor regime change in Rwanda, over the
years, experience has shown that he will keep counting decades of investment in
a loss making venture. His endeavour is similar to fetching water in a leaking
vessel.