In January 2019, a cache of leaked data pointed to an overwhelming victory by then Congolese presidential candidate Martin Fayulu.

The leaked data starkly contradicted the official results announced on January 10, 2019 which purported to show that another opposition candidate, Félix Tshisekedi, who had agreed a political fix –the deal struck with Tshisekedi was intended to allow outgoing President Joseph Kabila to rule from behind the scenes after he left office – with the outgoing President had beaten Fayulu.

The leaked data indicated that, in fact, Fayulu beat Tshisekedi by over five million votes.

Fast forward. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is heading for elections in December in perilous conditions.

With less than two months to poll day, the electoral situation is grim.

Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin, a soviet revolutionary and politician, once said: “the people who cast the votes don't decide an election, the people who count the votes do.”

President Tshisekedi is abiding by this theory and he has mobilised the state-run Commission Electorale Nationale Indépendante (CENI) to steal the elections in his favor, no matter the outcome.

Congolese citizens have accused CENI of deliberately creating the problems of lack of power, sources of machines, delays in registration, delivery of kits, solar panels, cables, in order to organize electoral chaos and fraud.

There have been calls for change of CENI leadership, but Tshisekedi turned a deaf ear. According to a high placed official in CENI who preferred anonymity, there are no signs of any electoral preparations going on in the country.

“So far, we do not have a specific amount of voters registered; we do not even know how many voting centers we will set up because they have not been designated. But once that is sorted out, we will also need to move the voting materials by air to remote locations,” explained the source.

The Congolese electoral commission’s failures have been well orchestrated and are not by accident.

In October 2021, Tshisekedi appointed Denis Kadima as Director of CENI, a move that outraged many from the opposition. Kadima is a very close ally to Tshisekedi and is a fellow tribesman from Kasai.

Related: DRC crisis: Worrisome trends of the transition from Tshisekedi to Tshisekedi

Tshisekedi has also been criticized for making three judicial appointments to the Constitutional Court by executive order, in October 2020. The handpicked appointees are in a key body expected to hear electoral disputes.

All these appointments show that Tshisekedi is heavily invested in modifying the CENI leadership, which will be in charge of tallying and organizing votes, than letting Congolese citizens choose their leaders.

Officially, the Congolese government is not talking about postponing elections but the tactics of conducting a fraudulent one are obvious.

Tshisekedi wants to be re-elected, hook or crook. If he does not prepare election fraud in time, he will exploit the insecurity in the restive east of his country to defer the elections.

Related: Sham election or no election at all: Two likely scenarios as Tshisekedi plots new power grab

Rising political tensions, logistical challenges and transparency issues in CENI, fighting between government forces and rebels in North Kivu Province and insecurity elsewhere; such is the environment leading up to the December 20 polls in DRC.

Just like he plotted to steal the presidency in 2018, Tshisekedi is ready to do what he does best.

The first vote, five years ago, was marked by widespread irregularities.

The authorities have maintained a “state of siege” (a form of martial law) in two eastern provinces and are suppressing demonstrations and meetings elsewhere – limiting freedoms necessary for a peaceful campaign. On August 30, troops from the Republican Guard massacred more than 50 civilians preparing for a protest.