The story of the Congolese armed forces collaborating with the DRC-based FDLR militia, a Rwandan terrorist group formed in 2000 by remnants of the perpetrators of the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi, is not new.

In 1994, following the Genocide against the Tutsi, two million perpetrators fled to Zaire, now DRC, where the remnants of the genocidal forces reorganised and started attacking Rwanda without any reaction from the international community.

Despite Kigali’s numerous calls for the UN and Kinshasa to disarm the genocidal militia and move them far away from Rwanda’s border, President Mobutu Sese Seko let them flourish just a few meters from the Rwandan border. They later reunited under the FDLR banner.

In a February interview with The EastAfrican newspaper, Rwandan President Paul Kagame said that a “red line was crossed” in the DRC crisis, when Kinshasa enabled the genocidal militia to shell on Rwandan territory and kill innocent citizens. Kagame explained how the Kinshasa has armed the FDLR with modern weapons.

“The FDLR shelled Rwandan territory with BM-21s (self-propelled multiple rocket launchers), which they could only get from the (DRC) government,” Kagame said.

“We respect DRC’s territorial integrity, but we have our territorial integrity too to protect. We need no invitation to do that,” he said, suggesting further such attacks could bring a direct military response from Kigali.

Instead of hostilities ending, they worsened especially since, sources say, Kinshasa upped the stakes. The current fighting pits the M23 rebels on the one hand against the Congolese army and loyal militias -- known locally as 'Wazalendo', the FDLR, and European mercenaries, on the other. The region has especially seen heavy clashes between the Wazalendo – a DRC state-backed militia – and M23 rebels in areas near Goma, the capital of North Kivu province.

“FOCA (the armed wing of the FDLR) were promised that they will control all eastern DRC areas close to the Rwanda border once they successfully coordinate the ongoing military operations against M23,” a source told this website.

The agreement was reached during a meeting between the FDLR which was represented by a FOCA commander called Brig Gen. Lucien Nzabamwita, alias Karume Andre, and the DRC government. The meeting was held in a place called Kavumu, in Kalehe territory, in South Kivu Province.

Accordingly, the FOCA commander also promised to regroup the now defeated and dispersed Wazelendo deserters so as to fight and finish off the M23 rebels not later than December 10. The Congolese are scheduled to hold presidential polls 10 days later, on December 20.

The Wazalendo were, initially about 6,000-strong but it is estimated that not more than half the number remain, many having been killed in running battles against the M23 rebels while others threw in the towel.

Their reorganization, which is a hard task, will be taken care of by FOCA’s intelligence chief, Brig. Gen. Sebastian Uwimbabazi, alias Abdallah Nyembo, who is also in charge of the Wazalendo operations.

In return, if the operation succeeds, Kinshasa will facilitate the FDLR in their war against Rwanda.

Kinshasa especially promised the genocidal militia direct access to the border region for easy infiltration and recruitment purposes and preparing attacks against Rwanda.

In Kinshasa, President Felix Tshisekedi pretends that the FLDR no longer represents a threat to Rwanda.

But the militia are in a position to continue to spread genocide ideology freely across the region. And the support they get from Kinshasa, in addition to the wealth they have amassed by exploiting the country’s resources and taxing the local population in areas they control gave them means to recruit a significant number of new members and build offensive capabilities. 

The FDLR has always wanted a good opportunity to attack Rwanda, and not only take over power but finish their unfinished job – genocide against the Tutsi.

FDLR poses an existential threat and, Kigali will certainly not accept such a threat on its borders. If that threat becomes real, Kigali will not sit back and cry for help. A direct military response from Kigali is the only likely scenario and that will worsen the turbulent eastern DRC crisis.

But to what end? Who would win from such a confrontation? Why would Tshisekedi plot to start a war he wouldn’t win considering the Rwandan army’s strength?

Is Tshisekedi, perhaps, exploiting the ongoing insecurity in eastern DRC to postpone the December 20 presidential election? Analysts have opined that the Congolese leader is trying to create an emergency so that the elections don’t take place.