DRC: Tshisekedi’s grand plan to rig elections exposed

Author: Matiya Mulumba

• 2023-03-02 05:36:00

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to hold presidential elections in December. Incumbent president Félix Tshisekedi is expected to avail himself for a second term, although majority Congolese believe that he has failed to deliver any tangible achievements in his first term.

If Tshisekedi was a gentleman, he could simply step down rather than continuing to be an embarrassment to the Congolese state.

Although Tshisekedi was declared the winner in 2019, the reality was that he had lost the elections miserably, emerging third after Martin Fayulu and Emmanuel Ramazani. Tshisekedi who lived in Brussels as a taxi driver was little known in DRC politics and only rode on the fame of his father Étienne Tshisekedi who was a long time opposition leader.

Knowing well that he is unpopular and has not delivered any development to the Congolese people in the last five years, sources in Kinshasa reveal, Tshisekedi is already in panic mode planning how he will rig elections. He wants to maintain instability in the east of the country to divert attention of the opposition, a situation he can use also as an excuse to buy more time and postpone or even cancel the elections.

According to the calendar of the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), over 50 million Congolese were expected to be registered for voting by March 17.  However, about two weeks to the deadline, there is no single voting centre that has reportedly completed registration including in the capital Kinshasa.

A further 24 centres in Kinshasa and an unspecified number in Mai Ndombe province are yet to open.

In a statement, the CENI rapporteur Patricia Nseya attributed the delay to “operational difficulties and security issues,” without giving details. Before the launch of the voter registration exercise on December 24, 2022, Denis Kadima, the president of the CENI, received instructions from Tshisekedi to use all possible means to create conditions that will not allow opposition strongholds to register.

Majority of Congolese are worried that the CENI is deliberately creating the problems of lack of power sources of the machines and delays in the registration, delivery of kits, solar panels, cables, in order to organize electoral chaos to prepare for fraud.

On the other hand, Tshisekedi is accused of using the CENI to create more voting centres in his home province of Kasai, allegedly preparing to enroll thousands of ‘ghost voters.’

Moïse Katumbi, a businessman and an opposition politician who has declared his intention to run for presidency, has said that, "there are more enrolment machines in Kasai than in other more populated areas like Katanga."

Many Congolese have expressed similar sentiments and believe that the CENI is prioritizing registering voters in areas loyal to Tshisekedi.

In October 2021, the choice of Kadima as head of the CENI caused anger. Over 10,000 opposition demonstrators took to the streets in Kinshasa asking for a neutral election commission.  The   police used tear gas to disperse demonstrators who chanted that Kadima is known to be very close to Tshisekedi and a fellow tribesman from Kasai and therefore cannot be trusted to be impartial.

To ensure that the electoral fraud is well coordinated, Tshisekedi also ensured that majority senior judges of the Constitutional Court and the Court of Appeal, responsible for dealing with electoral disputes, are from his home province of Kasai. The same is true of the Minister of Justice, Rose Mutombo Kiese, who is a Luba from Kasai-Oriental like President Tshisekedi. 

The power to organize and secure the elections is in the hands of the Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of the Interior, Security, Decentralization and Customary Affairs, Daniel Aselo Okito wa Koyi. Aselo is originally from Sankuru in Greater Kasai, and a strong supporter of Tshisekedi’s UDPS party.

As far as the financial aspects of the electoral process are concerned, they are managed by two other Luba from Kasai, the Minister of Finance, Nicolas Kazadi, as well as the Governor of the Central Bank, Malangu Kabedi Mbuyi, born in Kananga-Kasai Oriental.

Apart from manipulating the CENI and other institutions like the judiciary and finance to deliver him victory in the 2023 elections, Tshisekedi also wants to escalate the insecurity crisis in the east of the country to divert the attention of the opposition from campaigning against him but instead attract their sympathy to rally behind him to scapegoat Rwanda as the perceived common external enemy responsible for destabilizing DRC. To some extent, Tshisekedi has succeeded in confusing the opposition which is not demanding accountability, and allowing the presence of foreign mercenaries to fight their fellow Rwandophone Congolese rather than listening to their grievances through political dialogue.

Political analysts warn that the 2023 elections are likely to turn chaotic.

Tshisekedi has, for a long time, prepared to rig the elections which will create more insecurity in the country.

In the worst-case scenario, Tshisekedi may want to buy more time by extending elections beyond 2023, using the pretext of the war with M23 rebels which is also likely to create more violence in an already volatile environment.