DRC: Tshisekedi toying with war against Rwanda; but to what end?

Author: Samson Kasujja

• 2023-07-25 05:58:00

The rapid deterioration of security in eastern DRC and the resurgence of M23 rebels are an outcome of the Congolese government’s blatant refusal to address the root cause of conflict in the region, experts say.

One of the root causes of the current conflict is largely the presence in eastern DRC of the Rwandan genocidal militia, FDLR, formed by remnants of the criminals that perpetrated the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda. For nearly three decades, the Rwandan genocidal militia has spread its deadly genocide ideology in the region.

The M23 (and CNDP before it) and the various Mai-Mai and other rebel insurrections were always symptoms of the insecurity and the genocide ideology imported into the area by Rwandan genocidaires. Uganda’s terrorists (ADF) have also wreaked havoc in parts of the region. The M23 was not the cause but the consequence.

In 2021, when the M23 rebel group carried out lightning strikes on military positions of the Congolese army (FARDC) in the east of the country, Kinshasa accused Kigali of backing the rebels. Contrary to DRC’s claims, Kigali noted, Kinshasa was actually collaborating with and arming the FDLR militia, enabling them to attack Rwanda, including in November 2019 when the emboldened genocidal militia made incursions into Rwanda, killing civilians in Musanze District.

Later, especially in mid-2022, there was also shelling of Rwanda’s territory by the FARDC-FDLR coalition – on three occasions – which killed Rwandan civilians and destroyed property. Congolese warplanes violated Rwanda’s airspace at least three times since November 2022.

Rwanda dismissed allegations that its army supported the M23 rebels. But the allegations just won't go away. Kigali has over and over again pleaded with the UN about the military cooperation between the Congolese army, FARDC, and FDLR, and urged the international community not to stand by and watch the latter alliance threaten Rwanda’s security and territorial integrity.

Upping the ante: elections around the corner

After months of mobilization, organization, and massive recruitment, Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi, reliable sources indicate, has entrusted the genocidal militia with a clear mission – to wage war against Rwanda.

Based in DRC for over two decades, the remnants of the ex-FAR and Interahamwe who perpetrated the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda were supplied with heavy weaponry and given the green light to coordinate with the Congolese army.

As such, the commander of the genocidal militia’s armed wing, the Forces Combattantes Abacunguzi (FOCA), Lt Gen Pacifique Ntawunguka, alias Omega, has ordered all his combat units to get ready for a big offensive. The militia has been moving fighters into positions along the DRC-Rwanda border.

In April, it is reported, all FOCA combat units were hastily ordered to suspend other activities and mobilize their fighters so as to focus on readiness for war.

Some FDLR field commanders who know the military might of the Rwandan army, however, did not buy the idea and had to be convinced. They were assured that instead of directly confronting the Rwandan army, they would shell Rwandan territory using heavy weapons.

According to Rwandan authorities, and a number of diplomats well-versed in the conflict, Kinshasa’s intention is to suck Rwanda into DRC’s internal problems and cause international uproar over Rwanda’s reaction. Tshisekedi knows that the Rwandan government will certainly react when provoked that much. Rwanda has made it known that it is maintaining mechanisms in place to guard against violation of its airspace and borders, and will counter any spill-over from the conflict in DRC. Tshisekedi knows this and is actually banking on it as he plots an escalation of hostilities.

Knowing how unpopular he is, analysts note, Tshisekedi is exploiting the ongoing insecurity in eastern DRC so as to postpone the December presidential election.

Tshisekedi knows that FDLR is stronger, as a fighting force, than his poorly managed, indiscipline and corrupt army, and can cause trouble – especially by killing Rwandan civilians by shelling on Rwandan territory. The Congolese leader knows that the genocidal militia is his best bet in the plot to suck the Rwandan government into the conflict in eastern DRC.

The reasoning in Kinshasa is that the December elections cannot take place if the country is at war.