DRC: Tshisekedi wants war to postpone elections

As the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) prepares to go to polls in December 2023, the eastern part of the country is engulfed in yet another flare-up of violence following the clash between Congolese troops (FARDC) and the M23 rebels.

President Félix Tshisekedi has maintained that the country will go to the polls in 2023, when he is expected to run for a second term. But analysts say the insecurity in the east may be used to postpone the elections, effectively extending Tshisekedi’s stay in office.

Lately, fierce fighting was reported on October 20 and, by October 31, reports indicated that the M23 rebels seized control of two towns; Rutshuru and Kiwanja, north of the North Kivu Province’s capital, Goma.

For a country that is preparing general elections in less than a year, security should be priority, but to no one’s surprise, Kinshasa is playing blame games, expelling Rwanda's envoy, and refusing to deal with his country’s internal crisis. According to a roadmap by the Congolese National Electoral Commission, from October 2023,   simultaneous elections will be held for the President, the 500 members of the National Assembly, the elected members of the 26 provincial assemblies, and, for the first time under the new constitution, members of around 1,000 local councils (commune, sector, and chiefdom councils).

Clearly, for Tshisekedi, the security crisis in eastern DRC is serving him just fine. He is expected to run for a second term but postponing the elections could effectively extend his term in office, and enable him to retain power much longer.

The tensions in his resource-rich country are not new. But they are building up now that elections loom in December 2023.

The DRC leadership has continuously turned a blind eye to peace agreements it signed with the M23 rebels, and solely blaming the group for the insecurity. The M23 is only one of more than 130 armed groups pillaging the restive region in a complex conflict.

In 2019, the DRC government signed an agreement with a faction of M23 regarding their voluntary repatriation, with the facilitation of Rwanda. Three years down the road, it is still unfulfilled. Now, DRC has changed the narrative. It ruled out negotiations with the M23, which it has now described as a terrorist movement.

Kinshasa has constantly ignored Kigali’s plea for urgently addressing the root cause of instability in eastern DRC. Instead of disarming and repatriating the FDLR genocidal militia group which Rwanda says is a major threat, the former are fighting alongside the Congolese army against the M23 rebels. Analysts worry that this FARDC-FDLR cohabitation is a recipe for disaster.

 “Finally the DRC calls on the international community to bear witness to the actions of Rwanda and reminds the world that peace and stability in the East of the DRC is essential for the proper organization of elections in 2023,” reads part of a statement released on October 25, by the DRC government.

According to analysts, Tshisekedi who was elected in 2018 to much surprise is now sitting on a fragile majority and is very worried.

Therefore, it is noted, postponing the elections will give him time to cover up his failures during his first term in office, and his leadership’s inability to conceptualize a progressive developmental agenda capable of responding effectively to the country’s socio-economic and political challenges.

“Postponing the 2023 general elections will also give him time to gain popularity by advancing his anti-Rwanda agenda, and potentially increase his chances of re-election, later,” said a diplomat who preferred anonymity.

“In the current circumstances, even if Tshisekedi and his government were to be given hundred years to govern, they would not fix DRC’s problems because they have chosen a wrong approach by not addressing the root cause of the country’s problem. Postponing the elections will make no difference.”