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DRC: What if the EAC Regional Force leaves?

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Soon after arriving in the volatile east of the Democratic Republic of Congo, in November 2022, the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) made progress in bringing back law and order in the region. The presence of EACRF in eastern DRC allowed a ceasefire to last for about eight months.


From February to September 2023, there was no heavy fighting between the Congolese government coalition and the M23 rebels.


Related: DRC: EAC Regional Force’s mandate extended, Tshisekedi unsettled


EAC leaders commended the good work by the regional force that was mandated to create a buffer zone to prevent confrontations between Congolese armed forces (FARDC) and the M23 rebels as well as encourage political dialogue.


The bloc then extended the regional force’s mandate to December 8.


But Kinshasa was never happy with the regional force’s presence and had begrudgingly agreed to the mandate extension. The latter was done to help consolidate the gains the regional force had made. President Félix Tshisekedi has, on many occasions, stressed that he wants the regional force out of his country.


The Congolese president accused the bulk of the regional force comprising troops from Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan and Burundi of not fighting the M23 rebels. Kinshasa calls the rebels terrorists and has refused regional calls to dialogue with them.


Fighting resumed and intensified since October 1 around Goma, the capital of North Kivu Province, with clashes between M23 rebels, the Congolese army and groups of pro-government militia. The seven-member EAC is facing its biggest challenge yet as fighting between the Congolese armed forces, state-backed militia and M23 rebels intensifies.


A Kenyan soldier in the EACRF contingent has been killed. A convoy of Ugandan soldiers was attacked. The region has seen heavy clashes between the Wazalendo (patriots) – a DRC state-backed militia – and M23 rebels in areas near Goma, the capital of North Kivu province.


Related: DRC: Tshisekedi wants EAC regional force out, what’s next?


Congolese government insists that after December 8, the EAC regional force will leave eastern DRC.


Before the security situation in eastern DRC worsened, the M23 rebels had been complying with Luanda and Nairobi peace protocols by withdrawing from swathes of territories they had captured and allowing the regional force to take over.


Competing interests among the states that mandated the East African Community Regional Force complicate its task as fighting intensifies in eastern DRC.


The rebels have claimed that they have been attacked by, among others, Burundian troops deployed under a separate bilateral agreement with Bujumbura, eastern European mercenaries and the Rwandan genocidal militia, FDLR.


Related: Tshisekedi’s penchant for chaos, war taking a toll on EAC regional force


The EAC regional force in eastern DRC was the only mission that had managed to ensure a ceasefire. Its exit, if it happens, could spell disaster.


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