The Democratic Republic of Congo continues to struggle with insecurity.

As a way to quell the violence in the east of the country, in June 2022, the East African Community leadership, through the Nairobi process, decided to deploy a regional force in the volatile east of the country.

 

The DRC joined the EAC in March 2022. Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi used the occasion of the DRC’s accession to ask his counterparts for help in tackling the hundreds of armed groups in his country. Shortly afterward, the bloc agreed to establish a joint force to stem the violence.

 

In November 2022, the first batch of the regional force that comprised Kenyan soldiers landed in Goma, capital of DRC’s North Kivu province. The regional force’s mandate is to contain, defeat and eradicate all foreign armed forces, and other local armed groups who would refuse to join the political dialogue geared towards a return of normalcy in the eastern DRC.

 

Once in Goma, the Force Commander, Maj Gen Jeff Nyagah, called for an immediate cessation of hostilities especially the targeted attacks on civilians who continue to bear the brunt of the ongoing conflict, and further declared that the Kenyan troops’ mission is the disarmament and demobilization of armed groups who have instigated a significant degree of insecurity. His warning was not only targeting the M23 rebels.

 

To date, the regional force, EACRF, controls the areas of Kabaya, Biluma, and Rumangabo in Rutshuru territory. These are localities that the M23 rebels vacated, in compliance with the November 2022 Luanda agreement.

 

Despite all the good intentions, EACRF has been dogged by protests in Goma, in January and February.

 

Angry demonstrators have accused the regional force of not fighting the M23 rebels. Emboldened by their political and military leaders, including as senior as President Tshisekedi, the demonstrators are increasingly threatening the regional force to leave the country if it does not fight the rebels.

 

On top of the demonstrations, On February 4, after an Extra-Ordinary Summit of EAC Heads of State, President Tshisekedi, undiplomatically confronted, Gen Nyagah, over the fact that he had not moved against the M23 rebels. Tshisekedi told him to not favor the M23.

 

A video of this incident went viral on social media a day before demonstrations against the regional force took place in Goma. Tshisekedi showed his frustration with EACRF for failing to use military force to defeat the M23.

 

All these incidents raise some questions.

 

How will the regional force fulfil its mandate? Does Tshisekedi really want them to help bring peace, or he has other ulterior motives? And, considering the circumstances, what is their future in eastern DRC?

 

Clearly, Kinshasa is eager for a military solution rather than dialogue. How does Tshisekedi expect the regional force to take offensive action against the M23 rebels and leave out the more than 130 other local and foreign armed groups operating in eastern DRC? Why is Kinshasa’s focus only on a local rebel group that has a legitimate cause for fighting?

 

Unlike all other armed groups on Congolese soil, the M23 rebels – Kinshasa has called them terrorists in a plot to alienate them – are the only ones with a genuine reason for taking up arms to fight against the government.

 

The M23 rebels are fighting against a government that has deprived their communities, the Congolese Tutsi, of the right to citizenship. Their community is persecuted and a genocide against it is gradually being implemented. No one seems to care about their plight.

 

As the international community watches atrocities committed against them, without acting, the rebels know they must defend themselves. As the Congolese government buys time and arms and recruits mercenaries,  in preparation for a full scale onslaught, the rebels might not just sit and watch.

 

Some of the most dangerous foreign armed groups in eastern DRC include FDLR, a genocidal militia force formed by remnants of the perpetrators of the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda, and Uganda’s ADF, a terrorist group responsible for several deadly attacks in Kampala.

 

The threat posed by the former to Rwanda is never given much attention by Kinshasa.

 

The Congolese army and its coalition comprising Russian and French mercenaries, FDLR, and other local militias, have launched attacks against the M23 rebels.

 

As the December elections approach, Tshisekedi continues to reject the path of political dialogue and peace. He thrives in chaos. To stay in power, because he knows he is so unpopular, his strategy is that of fanning the flames of war and scapegoating Rwanda for all the ills plaguing his war weary country.

 

Kinshasa’s attitude in diverting the initial agenda of the bloc’s peace efforts, refusing dialogue, blaming supposed foreign backers for their entire insecurity issues, is the reason why a peaceful DRC will always be wishful thinking.

 

Tshisekedi is determined to derail the peace process.

 

In this case, the fate of the regional force - whether more troops from Uganda and South Sudan are deployed or not - is in the hands of other EAC leaders.