It’s been close to five years now since relations between Uganda and Rwanda went on ice. 

Over the past few years, the Ugandan security apparatus has run riot against the people of Rwanda: kidnapping, torturing and illegally detaining many. Rwandans are dumped at the border after passing through hell in Uganda.

The victims have been ordinary Rwandans of different backgrounds; farmers, potters, businessmen or women, religious leaders,  among others. Some of them have not been lucky as they succumbed to torture.

According to Ugandan security officials, all these people, now in their thousands, are accused of ‘spying for Rwanda’ though none of them has ever been produced before a court of law.

This prompted the government of Rwanda to issue caution to Rwandans against crossing into Uganda, with reason that their security would not be guaranteed once they cross into the neighbouring country.

Without doubt, people in both countries yearn and hope for the normalization of cooperation between the two countries. However, there exist some dependent factors to this.

Besides the torture of her citizens, Rwanda accuses Uganda – and with ample evidence – of supporting armed terror groups against Kigali that freely operate in Uganda, and enjoy facilitation of the security and to some degree, Ugandan state apparatus.

Among these terror groups is the Rwanda National Congress (RNC) and RUD-Urunana. 

Other terror groups such as the FDLR are known to have received Uganda’s support several times in executing their criminal enterprise against the people in Rwanda. 

Rwanda’s allegations against Uganda were presented at different meetings and always supplemented with evidence, mostly established from criminals caught and extradited to Rwanda, mainly from  the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), their operation base. 

Some of these elements were caught red handed with documentary evidence after they were intercepted from the border between DRC and Uganda from where they had attended a meeting with other anti-Rwanda groups organized by Ugandan senior officials.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni once admitted in an official letter to meeting some RNC officials in his office in a rather bizarre fashion; for him, this was an accidental meeting. 

Should I probably blame it on his ill-intentioned security organs that failed to gather an accurate due diligence and vetting report to the president about his invitees? That is a discussion for another day.

Uganda, on the other hand, has always accused Rwanda of spying and supporting the opposition in Uganda. Allegations that Ugandan officials have always failed to substantiate at all meetings between the two countries. 

A sense of hope?

The tensions between Uganda and Rwanda have certainly caused some significant harm on both sides. However, according to different regional economists, Uganda is the biggest looser. 

Economically, Uganda is losing hundreds of millions of US dollars per annum in trade, a risk factor officials there certainly never expected. 

The closure of the border between both countries is weighing heavily on Uganda’s economy that Museveni now feels the pressure. Ugandans who made a living from cross border trade with Rwanda are now suffering from the undesirable effect of Rwanda’s decision to close its borders with Uganda. 

The two envoys that were sent by Museveni to meet President Paul Kagame, most likely carried a message of appeal to reassess the bilateral cooperation of the two countries, a move that was certainly triggered by the economic pressure that is now felt by Uganda. At least that is what I am forced to read from the new developments. 

Uganda also finds itself between a rock and a hard place, with the current stand-off in terms of bilateral trade with Kenya.

Rwanda is open and committed to settling the issues with Uganda. Uganda knows it very well and has had the opportunity to testify to that. Rwanda remains open for discussions that aim at restoring a conducive cooperation between the two countries and its respective peoples for shared interests. 

Discussions between Rwanda and special envoys from Uganda are a good and bold step towards the revamping of bilateral cooperation. But more importantly, action to restore a conducive environment for bilateral cooperation to take place impose itself as the dependent factor for all other developments to take place.

Rwanda articulated her demands – which are clearly justified – that Kampala has to meet before the ties are normalized and good enough, every demand is within the powers of the latter, nothing insurmountable.

Many wish Uganda can use the same energy it used sending special envoys to Rwanda to address Rwanda’s concerns. Until then, expect no change but keeping the current status quo.

Some news came from Kampala, on January 25, with the announcement of the replacement of Maj Gen Abel Kandiho, the man who has been at the helm of torturing Rwandans in CMI dungeons.

Will Kandiho be held to account for, among others, facilitating terrorist groups intent on destabilizing Rwanda? Or, is removing him from CMI and posting him far away in South Sudan good enough for the Rwandans his agents maimed, and killed?