Why Museveni Kayumba plot against Rwanda will never succeed

For years on end, Museveni has tried numerous plots including supporting anti-Rwanda terror groups in a bid to remove President Paul Kagame and replace him with Kayumba Nyamwasa.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni’s desire for regime change in Rwanda has been known for a long time. For years on end, Museveni has tried numerous plots; from luring Rwandan officers to defect to Uganda, to supporting anti-Rwanda terror groups by training and arming them to attack Rwanda in a bid to remove President Paul Kagame and replace him with Kayumba Nyamwasa.

Rwanda would therefore, be more or less like an extension of Museveni’s sphere of influence. Since the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) launched the liberation struggle from Uganda, it has been a long time wish of Museveni to control Rwandan leaders. Recognition of mentorship is not imposed but comes from appreciation by the mentored.

War justification

For any war to succeed,  both the fighters and the citizens must appreciate  prevailing conditions for its justification which first of all boosts the morale of the fighters and that of the citizens who will be most affected when the war takes place. They must be ready to endure the suffering for a bigger cause than living in warless conditions when they are oppressed or denied fundamental rights and freedoms.

There must be hope that the war will change their lives for the better. It is foolhardy to start a war, the only reason being that Museveni is not happy because Kagame does not listen to him and therefore, wants him replaced by Kayumba!

Rwandans have confidence in President Kagame

Rwandans are now far better off in terms of socio-economic and political development contrary to the deliberate lies that Kayumba and his henchmen keep feeding to the outside world. The latter keep lying that Rwandans are languishing in poverty, with no human rights and, therefore, they need to be liberated. Rwandans are living happily, and have confidence in the country’s leadership particularly President Kagame who  has transformed their lives.

Millions of people have been lifted out of poverty. Since 2001 poverty measured by the national poverty line, declined from 58.9% to 38.2%. Ordinary Rwandans have success stories to tell that show the progress towards better living standards. Who then does Kayumba claim he wants to liberate, and from what? Rwandans are now wiser. They will not allow Kayumba and his terror group to wage a war on the Rwandan soil.

Trustable commander in chief

Any war worth the name must have a competent and trustable commander in chief. The fighters must believe in him much as those he is fighting for. Kayumba cannot be trusted. In an ongoing court case in Rwanda involving Kayumba’s Rwanda National Congress (RNC) and the Forces de Libération Nationale (FLN) militia of Paul Rusesabagina, the captured fighters of both terror groups told the court how Kayumba embezzled $1.5 million. The money that was contributed by members to buy arms to fight the Rwandan government ended up being used by Kayumba to buy for himself commercial trucks for his transport business.“That’s why I left Kayumba’s RNC together with businessmen and formed our own political organization,” Calixte Nsabimana, a former spokesperson of FLN, told a court in Kigali.

Associating with genocidaires

For Kayumba who grew up as a refugee and whose extended family members were killed in the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi, to now be associated with members of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) who committed genocide, is beyond imagination. The businessmen Kayumba relies on are mostly those who fear to return to Rwanda because of their direct involvement in the genocide against the Tutsi. This is how low and cheap Kayumba’s greed for money has taken him. He has become a colleague of genociders, when he was a General in the force that stopped the genocide!  Kayumba’s treacherous actions can only earn him what Rwandans call gutatira igihango ku gihugu cyakubyaye. Rwandan ancestors and the present generation cannot forgive Kayumba’s RNC and other terror outfits that have killed innocent citizens.

Kayumba has enriched himself with RNC members’ contributions at the expense of losing credibility and therefore, as he turns the RNC into a cash cow, and steals from his remaining few supporters, there will be no war.

The nature of war

The nature of war that Museveni has been plotting against Rwanda cannot be a direct confrontation between the two countries. He cannot have the guts and explanation before the international community. If he tried, he would find a strong well-built house that is well roofed without any leakage. The second option is engagement in a proxy war which has failed for decades. Assuming that a proxy war can be started, it would need to use guerilla war tactics that require clandestine operations and massive popular support. Museveni is deluded into thinking that since he captured power by means of a guerilla war, he can carry Kayumba on his back to do the same.

Modern technology rendered guerilla warfare obsolete

Modern technology and scientific innovations have rendered guerrilla warfare obsolete. A simple smartphone accessible in the remotest areas of Rwanda, used to share information in real time, makes concealment and clandestine operations almost impossible. I will avoid commenting on the robustness of the Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) and its modern warfare might. Any antagonist who dares the RDF, and survives, will tell a lifetime story of what happened.

RNC as a cash cow for Kayumba

For Kayumba, his deal is already done. He has amassed wealth by pocketing contributions from RNC members enabling him to live in comfort in South Africa, while deceiving young Rwandans to go and die in the jungles of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). On the other hand, for Museveni who has been trying to sponsor regime change in Rwanda, over the years, experience has shown that he will keep counting decades of investment in a loss making venture. His endeavour is similar to fetching water in a leaking vessel.