Regional
Will Luanda agreement hold this time? Concern about renewed fighting, influx of refugees from DR Congo
This
coming week promises to be decisive for the conflict in eastern DR Congo as the
East African Regional Force prepares to take over areas vacated by the
Congolese rebel group, M23.
The
Luanda agreement signed last November, under the leadership of Angolan
President João Lourenço, the African Union designated mediator, directed the
M23 rebels to “withdraw to its initial positions, as per the Extraordinary
Meeting of the Chiefs of General Staff of the EAC Armed Forces of November 8,
2022.”
With
the Kenyan contingent of the EARF already in place, what is expected next is
the “creation of conditions for the occupation of M23 currently controlled
zones by the EAC Regional Force with the support of MONUSCO and the Ad-Hoc
Verification Mechanism.”
Observers
are watching to see if this next step in the peace plan will also be
implemented.
The
facilitator of the East African Community-led peace process in eastern DR
Congo, former Kenyan President Uhuru
Kenyatta, met with leaders of M23 in Mombasa earlier this week, where
they pledged to adhere to the directive for an orderly withdrawal. Concerns
were also raised about civilians’ safety and the upholding of citizen rights in
DR Congo.
However,
other developments in the past week raise red flags about the intentions of the
Congolese government and military, and their sincerity in sticking to the
roadmap agreed in Luanda.
Notably,
the Chief of Staff of the Congolese Armed Forces, Lt Gen Christian Tshiwewe,
arrived in Goma on January 10, with much fanfare, for what was described as a
working visit. Reliable sources reveal that Tshiwewe held meetings with leaders
of irregular armed groups, including the genocidal militia,
FDLR, to coordinate a new FARDC offensive alongside newly arrived foreign
mercenaries and other Congolese irregular armed groups.
This
development raises concerns about risks to the Kenyan troops deployed in
the EAC
Regional Force, civilian casualties in the area, as well as the continued
targeting of at-risk communities who have been regular victims of FDLR and
other brutal armed groups allied to the genocidal militia.
Reports
indicate that Kinshasa has hired hundreds of mercenaries, some of whom are
already in Goma, the capital of North Kivu province.
An
investigation by German newspaper Taz claims that “dozens,
maybe a hundred white men in uniforms, with guns from Eastern Europe, many from
Romania, but speaking fluent French”, are staying at a hotel in
Goma and have been seen in and around the city. Civilian sources in the area
have said that they have seen armed white men on patrol alongside the Congolese
armed forces and other irregular armed groups, including FDLR, on the Goma-Kibumba
axis.
Asked
for a comment on these worrying developments, Government Spokesperson, Yolande
Makolo, said: “We have information that renewed fighting is imminent, following
the visit of the head of the DR Congo military to the region.
“This
would not be the first time that the DR Congo sabotages plans to bring peace to
the region. Rwanda is concerned about the potential for a new influx of
refugees fleeing the new offensives. It would be extremely counterproductive
and dangerous to attack troops of the EAC Regional Force, and put more
civilians at risk.”
Of
particular concern is the participation of senior Congolese military leaders
including Col. Salomon Tokolanga who was pinpointed by the UN Group of Experts
as having led the infamous meeting with FDLR and other illegal armed groups in
Pinga, in May 2022, where an alliance was formed to fight alongside the FARDC
against M23. It is understood that the groups present at the meeting were
provided with funds and promised weapons for the new offensive.
In a
separate meeting that Tshiwewe and the military governor of North Kivu
province, Lt Gen Constant Ndima Kongba, held with civil society and opinion
leaders, the focus was reportedly on mobilizing violent demonstrations against
the EAC regional forces stationed in Goma. This comes following hostile posts
on social media by Congolese individuals and groups against the Kenyan forces,
calling for demonstrations aimed at chasing out the Kenyan forces.
Considering
that the Congolese army is reportedly providing support and weapons to illegal
armed groups that are supposed to be disarming and demobilizing following the
recent third round of dialogue in Nairobi, the prospects for a breakthrough in
implementation of the Luanda Agreement and the Nairobi Process, appear
uncertain.
Asked
about this, Makolo said: “The Luanda roadmap is the best chance for peace for
our region, and all parties should abide by this agreement. In addition, the DR
Congo military is making a mockery of the Nairobi Process by continuing to
support, arm, and fight alongside illegal armed groups.
“The leaders of our region have invested extraordinary efforts in helping bring peace to the DRC, and this commitment must not be wasted.”
Source: www.newtimes.co.rw